Impact
We currently estimate that every $1 spent developing the Experience will generate over $35 in donations to effective charities. This estimate should be taken as exactly that - an estimate - given we have only recently launched and are yet to analyze our actual results. That said, our unique approach should give you confidence
Our Rationale
Original Position's tech-first approach allows rapid scaling and efficient outreach, reaching a larger audience at a lower cost than manual, in-person methods. Digital tools streamline giving and personalize engagement, enhancing effectiveness and conversion rates. In contrast, in-person interventions are resource-intensive and limited in reach. We also intentionally avoid duplicating efforts to evaluate effective charities - trusting the work of Givewell. This efficiency results in a higher multiplier, maximizing donations while minimizing costs.
Reporting
We will update this page in the future once we have results to share - likely on a quarterly basis.
Impact Estimation Model
In plain English, the model estimates that $250k over two years could reach 7,200 participants with the current experience (V1). I estimate that 2% of these participants (144 people) would pledge an additional 0.6% of their pre-tax income (∼$900 annually) to effective charities in the first year. Over time, and on average, these pledges could increase by 0.5 percentage points each year until reaching 5%, yielding a counterfactual present value impact of $4.8m—a 19x return on the $250k investment.
For an additional $100k, I can build a superior experience (V2) that over two years will reach 10,000 and generate 250 pledges more effectively, such that they would have a counterfactual present value impact of $12.7m, which would constitute a 36x multiple on the $350k cost. If this initial model proves effective, there is good reason to believe that Original Position could achieve >100x returns, in line with successful tech startups whose models I am emulating.
You can see our full model here. Please make a copy and play around with the inputs and assumptions to determine your own confidence level for these claims.